European summer temperatures since Roman times

被引：279

作者：

Luterbacher, J. ^{[1
]}

Werner, J. P. ^{[2
,3
]}

Smerdon, J. E. ^{[4
]}

Fernandez-Donado, L. ^{[5
,36
]}

Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J. ^{[5
,36
]}

Barriopedro, D. ^{[5
,36
]}

Ljungqvist, F. C. ^{[6
,7
]}

Buentgen, U. ^{[8
]}

Zorita, E. ^{[9
]}

Wagner, S. ^{[9
]}

Esper, J. ^{[10
]}

McCarroll, D. ^{[11
]}

Toreti, A. ^{[12
]}

Frank, D. ^{[8
]}

Jungclaus, J. H. ^{[13
]}

Barriendos, M. ^{[14
]}

Bertolin, C. ^{[15
,16
]}

Bothe, O. ^{[13
]}

Brazdil, R. ^{[17
,18
]}

Camuffo, D. ^{[15
]}

Dobrovolny, P. ^{[17
,18
]}

Gagen, M. ^{[11
]}

Garica-Bustamante, E. ^{[19
,37
]}

Ge, Q. ^{[20
]}

Gomez-Navarro, J. J. ^{[21
,38
]}

Guiot, J. ^{[22
]}

Hao, Z. ^{[20
]}

Hegerl, G. C. ^{[23
]}

Holmgren, K. ^{[24
,25
]}

Klimenko, V. V. ^{[26
,27
]}

Martin-Chivelet, J. ^{[28
]}

Pfister, C. ^{[21
]}

Roberts, N. ^{[29
]}

Schindler, A. ^{[30
]}

Schurer, A. ^{[23
]}

Solomina, O. ^{[31
]}

von Gunten, L. ^{[32
]}

Wahl, E. ^{[33
]}

Wanner, H. ^{[21
]}

Wetter, O. ^{[21
]}

Xoplaki, E. ^{[1
]}

Yuan, N. ^{[1
]}

Zanchettin, D. ^{[34
]}

Zhang, H. ^{[1
]}

Zerefos, C. ^{[35
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Giessen, Dept Geog Climatol Climate Dynam & Climate Change, Senckenbergstr 1, D-35930 Giessen, Germany

[2] Univ Bergen, Dept Earth Sci, Allegt 41, NO-5020 Bergen, Norway

[3] Univ Bergen, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Allegt 41, NO-5020 Bergen, Norway

[4] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Geol Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA

[5] Univ Complutense Madrid, Inst Geociencias IGEO, Ctr Super Invest Cientif, Ciudad Univ, E-28040 Madrid, Spain

[6] Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[7] Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[8] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[9] Inst Coastal Res, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany

[10] Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, D-55099 Mainz, Germany

[11] Swansea Univ, Dept Geog, Singleton Pk, Swansea SA2 8PP, W Glam, Wales

[12] Joint Res Ctr, European Commiss, I-21027 Ispra, Italy

[13] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[14] Univ Barcelona, Dept Modern Hist, Montalegre 6, E-08001 Barcelona, Spain

[15] Natl Res Council Italy CNR, Inst Atmospher Sci & Climate ISAC, Padua, Italy

[16] Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Dept Architectural Design Hist & Technol, Res Ctr Zero Emiss Bldg, Trondheim, Norway

[17] Masaryk Univ, Inst Geog, Brno, Czech Republic

[18] Global Change Res Ctr AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic

[19] Univ Murcia, Dept Phys, Murcia, Spain

[20] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[21] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland

[22] Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, IRD, CEREGE UM34, F-13545 Aix en Provence, France

[23] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, Midlothian, Scotland

[24] Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[25] Navarino Environm Observ, Costa Navarino, Messinia, Greece

[26] Russian Acad Sci, Krasnokazarmennaya St 14, Moscow 111250, Russia

[27] Global Energy Problems Lab, Moscow Energy, Krasnokazarmennaya St 14, Moscow 111250, Russia

[28] Univ Complutense Madrid, Fac Ciencias Geol, Dept Estratig, E-28040 Madrid, Spain

[29] Univ Plymouth, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England

[30] Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol Meteoswiss, Operat Ctr 1, CH-8058 Zurich, Switzerland

[31] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Staromonetny 29, Moscow, Russia

[32] PAGES Int Project Off, Falkenplatz 16, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

[33] NOAA, Paleoclimatol Program, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Ctr Weather & Climate, Boulder, CO USA

[34] Univ Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, I-30123 Venice, Italy

[35] Acad Athens, Biomed Res Fdn, Athens, Greece

[36] Univ Complutense Madrid, Fac Ciencias Fis, Dept Fis Tierra 2, Astron & Astrofis 2, Ciudad Univ, E-28010 Madrid, Spain

[37] CIEMAT, Renewable Energy Unit, E-28040 Madrid, Spain

[38] Univ Bern, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2016年 / 11卷 / 02期

基金：

俄罗斯科学基金会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Common Era; heat waves; paleoclimatology; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; European summer temperature reconstruction; ensemble of climate model simulations; Medieval Climate Anomaly; RECONSTRUCTING CLIMATE ANOMALIES; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE; TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES; LAST; 1000; YEARS; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS; FORCING RECONSTRUCTIONS; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE; BAYESIAN ALGORITHM; PMIP SIMULATIONS; MILLENNIUM;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

083001 [环境科学];

摘要：

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

引用

页数：12

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