Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content

被引：244

作者：

Santer, B. D. ^{[1
]}

Mears, C.

Wentz, F. J.

Taylor, K. E.

Gleckler, P. J.

Wigley, T. M. L.

Barnett, T. P.

Boyle, J. S.

Brueggemann, W.

Gillett, N. P.

Klein, S. A.

Meehl, G. A.

Nozawa, T.

Pierce, D. W.

Stott, P. A.

Washington, W. M.

Wehner, M. F.

机构：

[1] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climat Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[3] Remote Sensing Syst, Santa Rosa, CA 95401 USA

[4] Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA

[5] Univ Hamburg, Inst Unternehmensforsch, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[6] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[7] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[8] United Kingdom Meteorol, Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

[9] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2007年 / 104卷 / 39期

关键词：

climate change; climate modeling; detection and attribution; water vapor;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.0702872104

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m(2) per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

引用

页码：15248 / 15253

页数：6

共 31 条

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