Development of Land Use Regression Models for PM2.5, PM2.5 Absorbance, PM10 and PMcoarse in 20 European Study Areas; Results of the ESCAPE Project

被引：934

作者：

Eeftens, Marloes ^{[1
]}

Beelen, Rob ^{[1
]}

de Hoogh, Kees ^{[2
]}

Bellander, Tom ^{[3
]}

Cesaroni, Giulia ^{[4
]}

Cirach, Marta ^{[5
,6
]}

Declercq, Christophe ^{[7
]}

Dedele, Audrius ^{[8
]}

Dons, Evi ^{[9
,10
]}

de Nazelle, Audrey ^{[5
,6
]}

Dimakopoulou, Konstantina ^{[11
]}

Eriksen, Kirsten ^{[12
]}

Falq, Gregoire ^{[7
]}

Fischer, Paul ^{[13
]}

Galassi, Claudia ^{[14
]}

Grazuleviciene, Regina ^{[8
]}

Heinrich, Joachim ^{[15
]}

Hoffmann, Barbara ^{[16
,17
]}

Jerrett, Michael ^{[18
]}

Keidel, Dirk ^{[19
,20
]}

Korek, Michal ^{[3
]}

Lanki, Timo ^{[21
]}

Lindley, Sarah ^{[22
]}

Madsen, Christian ^{[23
]}

Moelter, Anna ^{[24
]}

Nador, Gizella ^{[25
]}

Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark ^{[5
,6
]}

Nonnemacher, Michael ^{[26
]}

Pedeli, Xanthi ^{[11
]}

Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole ^{[12
]}

Patelarou, Evridiki ^{[27
]}

Quass, Ulrich ^{[28
]}

Ranzi, Andrea ^{[29
]}

Schindler, Christian ^{[19
,20
]}

Stempfelet, Morgane ^{[7
]}

Stephanou, Euripides ^{[30
]}

Sugiri, Dorothea ^{[16
]}

Tsai, Ming-Yi ^{[19
,20
,30
]}

Yli-Tuomi, Tarja ^{[21
]}

Varro, Mihaly J. ^{[25
]}

Vienneau, Danielle ^{[2
]}

von Klot, Stephanie ^{[31
]}

Wolf, Kathrin ^{[31
]}

Brunekreef, Bert ^{[1
,32
]}

Hoek, Gerard ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utrecht, Inst Risk Assessment Sci, POB 80178, NL-3508 TD Utrecht, Netherlands

[2] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC HPA Ctr Environm & Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, London, England

[3] Karolinska Inst, Inst Environm Med, S-10401 Stockholm, Sweden

[4] Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy

[5] Ctr Res Environm Epidemiol CREAL, Barcelona, Spain

[6] Hosp del Mar, IMIM, Res Inst, Barcelona, Spain

[7] French Inst Publ Hlth Surveillance, St Maurice, France

[8] Vytautas Magnus Univ, Kaunas, Lithuania

[9] Flemish Inst Technol Res, VITO MRG, Environm Risk & Hlth Unit, Mol, Belgium

[10] Hasselt Univ, Diepenbeek, Belgium

[11] Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Hyg Epidemiol & Med Stat, Sch Med, Athens 11528, Greece

[12] Danish Canc Soc, Res Ctr, Copenhagen, Denmark

[13] Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Ctr Environm Hlth, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands

[14] AOU San Giovanni Battista, CPO Piedmont, Turin, Italy

[15] HMGU Inst Epidemiol I, Neuherberg, Germany

[16] IUF Leibniz Res Inst Environm Med, Dusseldorf, Germany

[17] Univ Dusseldorf, Fac Med, D-40225 Dusseldorf, Germany

[18] Univ Calif Berkeley, Sch Publ Hlth, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[19] Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Basel, Switzerland

[20] Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland

[21] Natl Inst Hlth & Welf, Dept Environm Hlth, Kuopio, Finland

[22] Univ Manchester, Sch Environm & Dev Geog, Manchester, Lancs, England

[23] Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol, Oslo, Norway

[24] Univ Manchester, Ctr Occupat & Environm Hlth, Manchester, Lancs, England

[25] Natl Inst Environm Hlth, Dept Environm Epidemiol, Budapest, Hungary

[26] Univ Duisburg Essen, Inst Med Informat Biometry & Epidemiol, Essen, Germany

[27] Univ Crete, Dept Social Med, Sch Med, Iraklion, Greece

[28] IUTA Inst Energie & Umwelttech eV, Air Qual & Sustainable Nanotechnol, Duisburg, Germany

[29] ARPA Emilia Romagna, Reg Reference Ctr Environm & Hlth, Modena, Italy

[30] Univ Washington, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[31] HMGU Inst Epidemiol, Neuherberg, Germany

[32] Univ Med Ctr Utrecht, Julius Ctr Hlth Sci & Primary Care, Utrecht, Netherlands

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY | 2012年 / 46卷 / 20期

关键词：

AIR-POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS; LONG-TERM EXPOSURE; PARTICULATE MATTER; NITROGEN-DIOXIDE; LUNG-CANCER; POLLUTANTS; MORTALITY; GIS; NO2;

D O I：

10.1021/es301948k

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance, PM10, and PMcoarse were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R-2) was 71% for PM2.5 (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R-2 was higher for PM2.5 absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PMcoarse (median 68%, range 32-81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R-2 was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R-2 results were on average 8-11% lower than model R-2. Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

引用

页码：11195 / 11205

页数：11

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