Individual, Social-Normative, and Policy Predictors of Smoking Cessation: A Multilevel Longitudinal Analysis

Objectives. We assessed the prospective impact of individual, social-normative, and policy predictors of quit attempts and smoking cessation among Massachusetts adults. Methods. We interviewed a representative sample of current and recent smokers in Massachusetts by telephone in 2001 through 2002 and then again twice at 2-year intervals. The unit of analysis was the 2-year transition from wave 1 to wave 2 and from wave 2 to wave 3. Predictors of quit attempts and abstinence of longer than 3 months were analyzed using multilevel analysis. Predictors included individual, social-normative, and policy factors. Results. Multivariate analyses of 2-year transitions showed that perceptions of strong antismoking town norms were predictive of abstinence (odds ratio=2.06; P<.01). Household smoking bans were the only policy associated with abstinence, but smoking bans at one's worksite were significant predictors of quit attempts. Conclusions. Although previous research showed a strong relation between local policy and norms, we found no observable, prospective impact of local policy on smoking cessation over 2 years. Our findings provide clear support for the importance of strong antismoking social norms as a facilitator of smoking cessation. (Am J Public Health. 2010;100:547-554. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2008.150078)