A stochastic control model for optimal timing of climate policies

被引：33

作者：

Bahn, O. ^{[1
,2
]}

Haurie, A. ^{[3
,4
,6
]}

Malhame, R. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] HEC Montreal, GERAD, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[2] HEC Montreal, MQG, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[3] GERAD, Geneva, Switzerland

[4] ORDECSYS, Geneva, Switzerland

[5] Ecole Polytech, Montreal, PQ H3C 3A7, Canada

[6] Univ Geneva, Dept Mangement Sci HEC, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland

来源：

AUTOMATICA | 2008年 / 44卷 / 06期

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

stochastic control; piecewise deterministic Markov process; climate policies; environmental hedging strategies;

D O I：

10.1016/j.automatica.2008.03.004

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

A stochastic control model is proposed as a paradigm for the design of optimal timing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission abatement. The resolution of uncertainty concerning climate sensitivity and the technological breakthrough providing access to a carbon-free production economy are modeled as controlled stochastic jump processes. The optimal policy is characterized using the dynamic programming solution to a piecewise deterministic optimal control problem. A numerical illustration is developed with a set of parameters calibrated on recently proposed models for integrated assessment of climate policies. The results are interpreted and the insights they provide on the timing issue of climate policy are discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1545 / 1558

页数：14

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