On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

被引:94
作者
Hofmann, Matthias [1 ]
Rahmstorf, Stefan [1 ]
机构
[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
关键词
climate change; ocean circulation; thermohaline circulation; tipping points; ocean modeling; FRESH-WATER TRANSPORTS; OCEAN CIRCULATION; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; CLIMATE; MODEL; EXCHANGE;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.0909146106
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
One of the most important large-scale ocean current systems for Earth`s climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we review its stability properties and present new model simulations to study the AMOC's hysteresis response to freshwater perturbations. We employ seven different versions of an Ocean General Circulation Model by using a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, which minimizes the problem of numerical diffusion. We find that a characteristic freshwater hysteresis also exists in the predominantly wind-driven, low-diffusion limit of the AMOC. However, the shape of the hysteresis changes, indicating that a convective instability rather than the advective Stommel feedback plays a dominant role. We show that model errors in the mean climate can make the hysteresis disappear, and we investigate how model innovations over the past two decades, like new parameterizations and mixing schemes, affect the AMOC stability. Finally, we discuss evidence that current climate models systematically overestimate the stability of the AMOC.
引用
收藏
页码:20584 / 20589
页数:6
相关论文
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