Cross-correlations between volume change and price change

被引:588
作者
Podobnik, Boris [1 ,2 ,4 ,5 ]
Horvatic, Davor [3 ]
Petersen, Alexander M. [1 ,2 ]
Stanley, H. Eugene [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[2] Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[3] Univ Zagreb, Fac Sci, Zagreb 10000, Croatia
[4] Univ Rijeka, Fac Civil Engn, Rijeka 51000, Croatia
[5] Zagreb Sch Econ & Management, Zagreb 10000, Croatia
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
econophysics; finance; volatility; STOCK; FLUCTUATIONS; VARIABILITY; VOLATILITY; RETURN; LAW; DISTRIBUTIONS; GROWTH; MEMORY;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.0911983106
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];
摘要
In finance, one usually deals not with prices but with growth rates R, defined as the difference in logarithm between two consecutive prices. Here we consider not the trading volume, but rather the volume growth rate (R) over tilde, the difference in logarithm between two consecutive values of trading volume. To this end, we use several methods to analyze the properties of volume changes vertical bar(R) over tilde vertical bar, and their relationship to price changes vertical bar R vertical bar. We analyze 14, 981 daily recordings of the Standard and Poor's (S & P) 500 Index over the 59-year period 1950-2009, and find power-law cross-correlations between vertical bar R vertical bar and vertical bar(R) over tilde vertical bar by using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). We introduce a joint stochastic process that models these cross-correlations. Motivated by the relationship between vertical bar R vertical bar and vertical bar(R) over tilde vertical bar, we estimate the tail exponent (alpha) over tilde of the probability density function P(vertical bar(R) over tilde vertical bar) similar to vertical bar(R) over tilde vertical bar(-1-(alpha) over tilde) for both the S & P 500 Index as well as the collection of 1819 constituents of the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index on 17 July 2009. As a new method to estimate (alpha) over tilde, we calculate the time intervals tau(q) between events where (R) over tilde > q. We demonstrate that (tau) over bar (q), the average of tau(q), obeys (tau) over bar (q) similar to q((alpha) over tilde). We find (alpha) over tilde approximate to 3. Furthermore, by aggregating all tq values of 28 global financial indices, we also observe an approximate inverse cubic law.
引用
收藏
页码:22079 / 22084
页数:6
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