An advanced statistical method for wind power forecasting

被引：416

作者：

Sideratos, George ^{[1
]}

Hatziargyriou, Nikos D. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Tech Univ Athens, GR-15773 Zografos, Greece

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 2007年 / 22卷 / 01期

关键词：

fuzzy sets; radial base function networks; self-organized map; wind power forecasting;

D O I：

10.1109/TPWRS.2006.889078

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

This paper presents an advanced statistical method for wind power forecasting based on artificial intelligence techniques. The method requires as input past power measurements and meteorological forecasts of wind speed and direction interpolated at the site of the wind farm. A self-organized map is trained to classify the forecasted local wind speed provided by the meteorological services. A unique feature of the method is that following a preliminary wind power prediction, it provides an estimation of the quality of the meteorological forecasts that is subsequently used to improve predictions. The proposed method is suitable for operational planning of power systems with increased wind power penetration, i.e., forecasting horizon of 48h ahead and for wind farm operators trading in electricity markets. Application of the forecasting method on the power production of an actual wind farm shows the validity of the method.

引用

页码：258 / 265

页数：8

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