Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

被引：86

作者：

Ackermann, Fran ^{[1
]}

Howick, Susan ^{[2
]}

Quigley, John ^{[2
]}

Walls, Lesley ^{[2
]}

Houghton, Tom ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Curtin Univ, Curtin Business Sch, Perth, WA 6845, Australia

[2] Strathclyde Business Sch, Dept Management Sci, Glasgow G1 1QE, Lanark, Scotland

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2014年 / 238卷 / 01期

关键词：

Problem structuring; Risk analysis; Group decision making; PROJECTS; MANAGEMENT; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejor.2014.03.035

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：290 / 299

页数：10