The CLIVAR C20C project: skill of simulating Indian monsoon rainfall on interannual to decadal timescales. Does GHG forcing play a role?

被引：50

作者：

Kucharski, F. ^{[1
]}

Scaife, A. A. ^{[2
]}

Yoo, J. H. ^{[1
]}

Folland, C. K. ^{[2
]}

Kinter, J. ^{[3
]}

Knight, J. ^{[2
]}

Fereday, D. ^{[2
]}

Fischer, A. M. ^{[4
]}

Jin, E. K. ^{[3
,5
]}

Kroeger, J. ^{[1
]}

Lau, N. -C. ^{[6
]}

Nakaegawa, T. ^{[7
]}

Nath, M. J. ^{[6
]}

Pegion, P. ^{[8
]}

Rozanov, E. ^{[9
]}

Schubert, S. ^{[8
]}

Sporyshev, P. V. ^{[10
]}

Syktus, J. ^{[11
]}

Voldoire, A. ^{[12
]}

Yoon, J. H. ^{[13
]}

Zeng, N. ^{[13
]}

Zhou, T. ^{[14
]}

机构：

[1] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste, Italy

[2] MOHC, Exeter, Devon, England

[3] Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD USA

[4] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[5] George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[6] Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA

[7] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Tokyo, Japan

[8] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[9] World Radiat Ctr, Phys Meteorol Observ, Davos, Switzerland

[10] Voeikov Main Geophys Observ, St Petersburg, Russia

[11] Queensland Climate Change Ctr Excellence, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[12] Meteo France CNRS, CNRM GAME, Toulouse, France

[13] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[14] LASG, Inst Atmospher Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2009年 / 33卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Climate variability; Multimodel ensembles; Indian monsoon; ENSO-monsoon relation; Interannual-to-decadal predictability; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON; ENSO RELATIONSHIP; VARIABILITY; ATLANTIC;

D O I：

10.1007/s00382-008-0462-y

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), that are forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), to simulate the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) variability on interannual to decadal timescales is analyzed in a multimodel intercomparison. The multimodel ensemble has been performed within the CLIVAR International "Climate of the 20th Century" (C20C) Project. This paper is part of a C20C intercomparison of key climate time series. Whereas on the interannual timescale there is modest skill in reproducing the observed IMR variability, on decadal timescale the skill is much larger. It is shown that the decadal IMR variability is largely forced, most likely by tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but as well by extratropical and especially Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) related SSTs. In particular there has been a decrease from the late 1950s to the 1990s that corresponds to a general warming of tropical SSTs. Using a selection of control integrations from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), it is shown that the increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the twentieth century has not significantly contributed to the observed decadal IMR variability.

引用

页码：615 / 627

页数：13

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