DECADAL PREDICTION Can It Be Skillful?

被引：582

作者：

Meehl, Gerald A. ^{[1
]}

Goddard, Lisa ^{[2
]}

Murphy, James ^{[3
]}

Stouffer, Ronald J. ^{[4
]}

Boer, George ^{[5
]}

Danabasoglu, Gokhan ^{[1
]}

Dixon, Keith ^{[4
]}

Giorgetta, Marco A. ^{[6
]}

Greene, Arthur M. ^{[2
]}

Hawkins, Ed ^{[7
]}

Hegerl, Gabriele ^{[8
]}

Karoly, David ^{[9
]}

Keenlyside, Noel ^{[10
]}

Kimoto, Masahide ^{[11
]}

Kirtman, Ben ^{[12
]}

Navarra, Antonio ^{[13
]}

Pulwarty, Roger ^{[14
]}

Smith, Doug ^{[3
]}

Stammer, Detlef ^{[15
]}

Stockdale, Timothy ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] NCAR, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

[2] IRI, New York, NY USA

[3] Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[4] GFDL, Princeton, NJ USA

[5] Environm Canada, Gatineau, PQ, Canada

[6] MPI, Saarbrucken, Germany

[7] Univ Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England

[8] Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[9] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[10] IFM GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany

[11] Univ Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

[12] Univ Miami, Miami, FL USA

[13] INGV, Rome, Italy

[14] NOAA, Boulder, CO USA

[15] Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

[16] ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2009年 / 90卷 / 10期

关键词：

SOLAR-CYCLE VARIABILITY; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; NORTH-ATLANTIC; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; DATA ASSIMILATION; PACIFIC;

D O I：

10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving threedimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

引用

页码：1467 / 1485

页数：19

共 107 条

[51] Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [J].