Predicting late rectal complications following prostate conformal radiotherapy using biologically effective doses and normalized dose-surface histograms

A model to predict the late normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) of the rectum following conformal therapy is described. The model evaluates the biological consequence of inhomogeneities in the physical dose by computing dose histograms of the biologically effective dose to the surface of the rectum for a given fractionation scheme. A method of normalizing the surface area of the rectum is employed so that the predicted NTCP is independent of the differing cross-sectional size of sections of the rectum, ensuring the NTCP is dependent only on the dose delivered to sensitive rectal tissues. The model has been used to assess severe late rectal complications and the milder RTOG grades 2 and 3 reactions. This model was found to predict severe toxicity levels of 1.7+/-0.6% for an accelerated treatment of 50 Gy in 16 fractions commonly employed at this centre. This result lies between the severe toxicities predicted for 60 and 62 Gy delivered in 2 Gy fractions. The model predicts that the average NTCP for severe late effects for nine prostate patients becomes greater than 5% with a fractionation scheme of 70 Gy in 35 fractions, for the four fields treatment. The effects of not treating all fields at each therapy session on rectal toxicity were also investigated. Biologically effective dose-surface histograms show that the dose to the lower surface of the rectum is increased by not treating all fields at each therapy session, but the predicted differences in rectal NTCP are negligible.