Estimation and prediction of plant species richness in a mosaic landscape

Traditional agricultural mosaic landscapes are likely to undergo dramatic changes through either intensification or abandonment of land use. Both developmental trends may negatively affect the vascular plant species richness of such landscapes. Therefore, sustainable land-use systems need to be developed to maintain and re-establish species richness at various spatial scales. To evaluate the sustainability of specific land-use systems, we need approaches for the effective assessment of the present species richness and models that can predict the effects on species richness as realistically as possible. In this context, we present a methodology to estimate and predict vascular plant species richness at the local and the regional scale. In our approach, the major determinants of vascular plant species richness within the study area are taken into consideration: These are according to Duelli's mosaic concept the number of habitat types and of habitat patches within area units. Furthermore, it is based on the relative frequencies of species within habitat types. Our approach comprises six steps: (i) the determination of present habitat patterns within an observation area, (ii) the creation of a land-use scenario with simulated habitat patterns, (iii) the determination of species frequencies within habitat types of this area, (iv) a grouping of habitat-specific species, (v) the estimation of the probabilities for all species (or habitat specialists) to occur, either in stepwise, exponentially enlarged landscape tracts (local scale), or in the entire observation area (regional scale), and (vi) the validation of the estimated species numbers. The approach will be exemplified using data from the municipal district of Erda, Lahn-Dill Highlands, Germany. The current species numbers to be expected on the basis of probability calculations were compared with those recorded on the basis of extensive field work. This comparison shows that, on the basis of our simple calculations, the current local plant species richness can be predicted well, with a slight underestimation.