Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions

被引：53

作者：

Aerts, J. C. J. H.

Renssen, H.

Ward, P. J.

de Moel, H.

Odada, E.

Bouwer, L. M.

Goosse, H.

机构：

[1] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands

[2] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Dept Palaeoclimatol & Geomorphol, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands

[3] Univ Nairobi, Dept Geol, Nairobi, Kenya

[4] Univ Catholique Louvain, Inst Astron & Geophys Georges Lemaitre, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2006年 / 33卷 / 19期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2006GL027493

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

A comparative analysis of global river basins shows that some river discharges are more sensitive to future climate change for the coming century than to natural climate variability over the last 9000 years. In these basins (Ganges, Mekong, Volta, Congo, Amazon, Murray-Darling, Rhine, Oder, Yukon) future discharges increase by 6-61%. These changes are of similar magnitude to changes over the last 9000 years. Some rivers (Nile, Syr Darya) experienced strong reductions in discharge over the last 9000 years (17-56%), but show much smaller responses to future warming. The simulation results for the last 9000 years are validated with independent proxy data.

引用

页数：5

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