Support vector machines for spatiotemporal tornado prediction

The use of support vector machines (SVMs) for predicting the location and time of tornadoes is presented. In this paper, we extend the work by Lakshmanan et al. ( Proceedings of 2005 IEEE international joint conference on neural networks ( Montreal, Canada), 3, 2005a, 1642-1647) to use a set of 33 storm days and introduce some variations that improve the results. The goal is to estimate the probability of a tornado event at a particular spatial location within a given time window. We utilize a least-squares methodology to estimate shear, quality control of radar reflectivity, morphological image processing to estimate gradients, fuzzy logic to generate compact measures of tornado possibility and SVM classification to generate the final spatiotemporal probability field. On the independent test set, this method achieves a Heidke's skill score of 0.60 and a critical success index of 0.45.