Can multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging predict upgrading of transrectal ultrasound biopsy results at more definitive histology?

Objective: To determine whether multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) has a role in reducing the uncertainty in risk stratification by transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) biopsy, using histology at transperineal template-guided prostate mapping (TPM) biopsy as the reference test. Materials and methods: Overall, 194 patients underwent TRUS biopsy, who were followed up in less than 18 months by means of (a) mp-MRI with pelvic phased array using T2-weighted, diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced sequences and (b) TPM biopsy. Of those patients, low risk on TRUS biopsy was defined in 4 different ways (a) definition 1: Gleason 3 + 3 (any cancer core length) (n = 137), (b) definition 2: maximum cancer core length (MCCL) < 50% (any Gleason score) (n = 62), (c) definition 3: Gleason 3 + 3 and MCCL < 50% (n = 52), and (d) definition 4: Gleason 3 + 3, MCCL < 50%, prostate-specific antigen level < 10 ng/ml, and < 50% positive cores (n = 28). Mp-MRI was scored for the likelihood of cancer from 1 (cancer very unlikely) to 5 (cancer very likely). Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between MRI scores and TPM histology. Results: Median prostate-specific antigen level was 7 ng/ml (range: 0.9-29), median time between TRUS biopsy and mp-MRI was 120 days (range: 41-480), and median time between mp-MRI and TPM biopsy was 60 days (range: 1-420). A median of 48 cores (range: 20-118) were taken at TPM biopsy. Gleason score was upgraded in 62 of 137 (45%) patients at TPM biopsy. The negative predictive values of mp-MRI score 1 to 2 for predicting that cancer remained low risk (according to each definition) were 75%, 100%, 83%, and 100% for definitions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. An mp-MRI score of 4 to 5 had positive predictive values for upgrade or upsize of 59%, 67%, 75%, and 69% for definitions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Conclusion: The presence of an mp-MRI lesion in men with low-risk prostate cancer on TRUS biopsy confers, in most patients, a high likelihood that higher-risk disease will be present (either Gleason pattern 4 or a significant cancer burden). Conversely, if a lesion is not seen on mp-MRI, the attribution of low-risk grade or cancer burden is much more likely to be correct. Mp-MRI might therefore be used to triage men for resampling biopsies before entering active surveillance. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.