Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?

被引：74

作者：

Zhu, Bangzhu ^{[1
,2
]}

Wang, Kefan ^{[3
]}

Chevallier, Julien ^{[4
,5
]}

Wang, Ping ^{[2
]}

Wei, Yi-Ming ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Jinan Univ, Sch Management, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[2] Jinan Univ, Inst Resource Environm & Sustainable Dev Res, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[3] Wuyi Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Jiangmen 529020, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[4] IPAG Business Sch, IPAG Lab, F-75006 Paris, France

[5] Univ Paris 8 LED, F-93526 St Denis, France

[6] Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[7] Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[8] Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

来源：

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS | 2015年 / 119卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

China; Carbon intensity; Economic growth; Energy structure adjustment; Contribution evaluation; EMISSIONS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.015

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

In 2009, the Chinese government announced its carbon intensity target for 2020. Can China achieve this carbon intensity while sustaining economic growth? To address this essential issue, the contributions of this study lie in three aspects. First, we quantitatively capture the relationship between China's economic growth and energy consumption using the cointegration theory, and predict China's energy consumption by 2020 according to different economic growth targets. Second, we forecast China's energy structure in 2020 using compositional data and ARIMA models under different scenarios. Third, we deduce China's CO2 emission and carbon intensity in 2020. Furthermore, we investigate whether (or not) China can realize the carbon intensity target in premise of ensuring economic growth, and evaluate the contribution of the energy structure's adjustment to meeting this target. Finally, we put forward some relevant policy implications for achieving China's carbon intensity target. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：209 / 216

页数：8

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