Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer

被引:234
作者
Coumou, Dim [1 ]
Petoukhov, Vladimir [1 ]
Rahmstorf, Stefan [1 ]
Petri, Stefan [1 ]
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
[2] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA
关键词
climate change; Arctic amplification; climate impact; planetary waves; midlatitude weather; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE; SEA-ICE; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY; ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION; CLIMATE EXTREMES; ANNULAR MODE; INTENSE; IMPACT; WAVES;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.1412797111
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of high-impact summer extremes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Many of these events were associated with anomalous jet stream circulation patterns characterized by persistent high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Two mechanisms have recently been proposed that could provoke such patterns: (i) a weakening of the zonal mean jets and (ii) an amplification of quasi-stationary waves by resonance between free and forced waves in midlatitude waveguides. Based upon spectral analysis of the midtroposphere wind field, we show that the persistent jet stream patterns were, in the first place, due to an amplification of quasi-stationary waves with zonal wave numbers 6-8. However, we also detect a weakening of the zonal mean jet during these events; thus both mechanisms appear to be important. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the anomalous circulation regimes lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events on monthly timescales. The recent cluster of resonance events has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves of wave numbers 7 and 8 in July and August. We show that this is a robust finding that holds for different pressure levels and reanalysis products. We argue that recent rapid warming in the Arctic and associated changes in the zonal mean zonal wind have created favorable conditions for double jet formation in the extratropics, which promotes the development of resonant flow regimes.
引用
收藏
页码:12331 / 12336
页数:6
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