Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas

The present Study attempts to explore changes in rainfall pattern in the Indian Himalayas during 20th century using 80-year data from 30 rain gauge stations maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK) was applied to detect trend, and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney (PMW) test was employed to detect possible shift. Implication of the change is discussed in terms of percentage change over mean. The results show that the most probable year of change in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the region is 1964. There was an increasing trend upto 1964 (corroborating with all India and nearby plains), followed by a decreasing trend in 1965-1980 (exclusive to this region). In the entire region, changes are most conspicuous over the Shivaliks and file Southern part of the Lesser Himalayas. Copyright 0 2008 Royal Meteorological Society