Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica

被引：616

作者：

Joughin, Ian ^{[1
]}

Smith, Benjamin E. ^{[1
]}

Medley, Brooke ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Appl Phys Lab, Polar Sci Ctr, Seattle, WA 98105 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2014年 / 344卷 / 6185期

关键词：

PINE ISLAND; SHELF; SATELLITE;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1249055

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.

引用

页码：735 / 738

页数：4

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