Size of outbreaks near the epidemic threshold

被引：42

作者：

Ben-Naim, E ^{[1
]}

Krapivsky, PL

机构：

[1] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Div Theoret, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA

[2] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Ctr Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA

[3] Boston Univ, Ctr Biodynam, Boston, MA 02215 USA

[4] Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA

来源：

PHYSICAL REVIEW E | 2004年 / 69卷 / 05期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1103/PhysRevE.69.050901

中图分类号：

O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];

学科分类号：

070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;

摘要：

The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n(*) scales as N-2/3 with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size <n> scales as N-1/3. Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t(*)similar toN(1/3) and <t>similar toln N, respectively.

引用

页数：4

共 24 条

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