The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

被引：2621

作者：

Frey, Carl Benedikt ^{[1
]}

Osborne, Michael A. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Oxford OX1 1PT, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Engn Sci, Oxford OX1 3PJ, England

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2017年 / 114卷

关键词：

Occupational choice; Technological change; Wage inequality; Employment; Skill demand; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; TECHNICAL CHANGE; LABOR; POLARIZATION; INEQUALITY; BRITAIN; DEMAND; GUILDS; WAGES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc.

引用

页码：254 / 280

页数：27

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