THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction

被引：801

作者：

Kirtman, Ben P. ^{[1
]}

Min, Dughong ^{[1
]}

Infanti, Johnna M. ^{[1
]}

Kinter, James L., III ^{[2
]}

Paolino, Daniel A. ^{[2
]}

Zhang, Qin ^{[3
]}

van den Dool, Huug ^{[3
]}

Saha, Suranjana ^{[3
]}

Mendez, Malaquias Pena ^{[3
]}

Becker, Emily ^{[3
]}

Peng, Peitao ^{[3
]}

Tripp, Patrick ^{[3
]}

Huang, Jin ^{[3
]}

DeWitt, David G. ^{[4
]}

Tippett, Michael K. ^{[4
,5
]}

Barnston, Anthony G. ^{[4
]}

Li, Shuhua ^{[4
]}

Rosati, Anthony ^{[6
]}

Schubert, Siegfried D. ^{[7
]}

Rienecker, Michele ^{[7
]}

Suarez, Max ^{[7
]}

Li, Zhao E. ^{[7
]}

Marshak, Jelena ^{[7
]}

Lim, Young-Kwon ^{[7
]}

Tribbia, Joseph ^{[8
]}

Pegion, Kathleen ^{[9
]}

Merryfield, William J. ^{[10
]}

Denis, Bertrand ^{[10
]}

Wood, Eric F. ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA

[2] Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD USA

[3] NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Predict, Camp Springs, MD USA

[4] Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY USA

[5] King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah 21413, Saudi Arabia

[6] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA

[7] NASA Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA

[8] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[9] Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[10] Environm Canada, Fredericton, NB, Canada

[11] Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2014年 / 95卷 / 04期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

DATA ASSIMILATION; SYSTEM; FORECASTS; IMPACT; SKILL; ENSO; PROBABILITY; CALIBRATION; RATIONALE; PROSPECTS;

D O I：

10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The first change in prediction strategy naturally follows from the fact that climate variability includes a chaotic or irregular component, and, because of this, forecasts must include a quantitative assessment of this uncertainty. More importantly, the climate prediction community now understands that the potential utility of climate forecasts is based on end-user decision support. The forecasts are provided to the NOAA CPC on an experimental basis for evaluation and consolidation as a multimodel ensemble ISI prediction system. The experimental prediction system developed by this NMME team is as an 'NMME of opportunity' in that the seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems are readily available and each team member has independently developed the initialization and prediction protocol. In the months before August 2011, the hindcast data were collected and climatologies and skill assessments for each model to be applied to subsequent real-time predictions were calculated.

引用

页码：585 / 601

页数：17

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