Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa

Our models indicate that in the next 30-40 years, the effects of climate change on stable falciparum malaria zones in Africa are probably complex and spatially heterogeneous, and that range contractions are more likely than expansions. Notably, we did not find evidence that the highlands are particularly vulnerable to change in this period. It is only by the second half of this century that increases in the potential for stable transmission in the highlands due to climate change were projected to be strong and, even here, the response was patchy. While not denying the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce long-term adverse impact, we suggest that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread expansion in the distribution of stable malaria in Africa during the next few decades.