Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

被引:154
作者
Mora, Camilo [1 ]
Wei, Chih-Lin [2 ]
Rollo, Audrey [3 ]
Amaro, Teresa [4 ]
Baco, Amy R. [5 ]
Billett, David [6 ]
Bopp, Laurent [7 ]
Chen, Qi [1 ]
Collier, Mark [8 ]
Danovaro, Roberto [9 ]
Gooday, Andrew J. [6 ]
Grupe, Benjamin M. [10 ]
Halloran, Paul R. [11 ,12 ]
Ingels, Jeroen [13 ,14 ]
Jones, Daniel O. B. [6 ]
Levin, Lisa A. [10 ]
Nakano, Hideyuki [15 ]
Norling, Karl [16 ]
Ramirez-Llodra, Eva [17 ]
Rex, Michael [18 ]
Ruhl, Henry A. [6 ]
Smith, Craig R. [19 ]
Sweetman, Andrew K. [20 ]
Thurber, Andrew R. [21 ]
Tjiputra, Jerry F. [22 ]
Usseglio, Paolo [23 ,24 ]
Watling, Les [23 ]
Wu, Tongwen [25 ]
Yasuhara, Moriaki [26 ,27 ]
机构
[1] Univ Hawaii, Dept Geog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[2] Mem Univ Newfoundland, Ctr Ocean Sci, St John, NF, Canada
[3] Pacific Isl Fisheries Sci Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA
[4] Norwegian Inst Water Res, Bergen, Norway
[5] Florida State Univ, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA
[6] Univ Southampton Waterfront Campus, Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton, Hants, England
[7] CNRS, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
[8] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org Marine & Atmospher, Ctr Australian Weather & Climate Res, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
[9] Polytech Univ Marche, Dept Life & Environm Sci, Ancona, Italy
[10] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Ctr Marine Biodivers & Conservat, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
[11] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
[12] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England
[13] Univ Ghent, Dept Biol, Marine Biol Res Grp, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
[14] Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth, Devon, England
[15] Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan
[16] Norwegian Inst Water Res, Oslo, Norway
[17] CSIC, Inst Ciencies Mar, Barcelona, Spain
[18] Univ Massachusetts, Dept Biol, Boston, MA 02125 USA
[19] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Oceanog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[20] Int Res Inst Stavanger, Bergen, Norway
[21] Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA
[22] Uni Res, Uni Climate, Bergen, Norway
[23] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Biol, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[24] Ctr Innovac Fdn In Nova Castilla La Mancha, Madrid, Spain
[25] China Meteorol Adm, Beijing Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
[26] Univ Hong Kong, Swire Inst Marine Sci, Sch Biol Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[27] Univ Hong Kong, Dept Earth Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
关键词
OXYGEN MINIMUM ZONE; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS; LONG-TERM CHANGE; BODY-SIZE; CORAL-REEFS; ENVIRONMENTAL-INFLUENCES; BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA; HABITAT COMPRESSION; MARINE BIODIVERSITY; SUBMARINE CANYONS;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682
中图分类号
Q5 [生物化学]; Q7 [分子生物学];
学科分类号
071010 ; 081704 ;
摘要
Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
引用
收藏
页数:14
相关论文
共 150 条
  • [1] Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters
    Adger, WN
    Hughes, TP
    Folke, C
    Carpenter, SR
    Rockström, J
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2005, 309 (5737) : 1036 - 1039
  • [2] Global biodiversity, biochemical kinetics, and the energetic-equivalence rule
    Allen, AP
    Brown, JH
    Gillooly, JF
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2002, 297 (5586) : 1545 - 1548
  • [3] Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries
    Allison, Edward H.
    Perry, Allison L.
    Badjeck, Marie-Caroline
    Adger, W. Neil
    Brown, Katrina
    Conway, Declan
    Halls, Ashley S.
    Pilling, Graham M.
    Reynolds, John D.
    Andrew, Neil L.
    Dulvy, Nicholas K.
    [J]. FISH AND FISHERIES, 2009, 10 (02) : 173 - 196
  • [4] The trophic biology of the holothurian Molpadia musculus: implications for organic matter cycling and ecosystem functioning in a deep submarine canyon
    Amaro, T.
    Bianchelli, S.
    Billett, D. S. M.
    Cunha, M. R.
    Pusceddu, A.
    Danovaro, R.
    [J]. BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2010, 7 (08) : 2419 - 2432
  • [5] Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders
    Anthony, K. R. N.
    Kline, D. I.
    Diaz-Pulido, G.
    Dove, S.
    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2008, 105 (45) : 17442 - 17446
  • [6] Aronson RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1502
  • [7] The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally elevated carbon dioxide levels: Implications for near-term ocean acidification effects
    Barton, Alan
    Hales, Burke
    Waldbusser, George G.
    Langdon, Chris
    Feely, Richard A.
    [J]. LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 2012, 57 (03) : 698 - 710
  • [8] Confronting the coral reef crisis
    Bellwood, DR
    Hughes, TP
    Folke, C
    Nystrom, M
    [J]. NATURE, 2004, 429 (6994) : 827 - 833
  • [9] Long-term change in the abyssal NE Atlantic: The 'Amperima Event' revisited
    Billett, D. S. M.
    Bett, B. J.
    Reid, W. D. K.
    Boorman, B.
    Priede, I. G.
    [J]. DEEP-SEA RESEARCH PART II-TOPICAL STUDIES IN OCEANOGRAPHY, 2010, 57 (15) : 1406 - 1417
  • [10] Long-term change in the megabenthos of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (NE Atlantic)
    Billett, DSM
    Bett, BJ
    Rice, AL
    Thurston, MH
    Galéron, J
    Sibuet, M
    Wolff, GA
    [J]. PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY, 2001, 50 (1-4) : 325 - 348