Global warming and changes in drought

被引：2266

作者：

Trenberth, Kevin E. ^{[1
]}

Dai, Aiguo ^{[1
,2
]}

van der Schrier, Gerard ^{[3
,4
]}

Jones, Philip D. ^{[3
,5
]}

Barichivich, Jonathan ^{[3
,6
]}

Briffa, Keith R. ^{[3
]}

Sheffield, Justin ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[2] SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA

[3] Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[4] Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, Climate Serv Dept, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands

[5] King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia

[6] CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[7] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2014年 / 4卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

LAND-SURFACE PRECIPITATION; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; CLIMATE; 21ST-CENTURY; PROJECTIONS; DATASET; TRENDS; INDEX; WET; DRY;

D O I：

10.1038/NCLIMATE2067

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Nino/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Nina events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.

引用

页码：17 / 22

页数：6

共 42 条

[11] Tropical rainfall variability on interannual-to-interdecadal and longer time scales derived from the GPCP monthly product [J].