Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

被引：12

作者：

Gonzalez, Alvaro

Gomez, Javier B.

Pacheco, Amalio F.

机构：

[1] Univ Zaragoza, Dept Ciencias Tierra, E-50009 Zaragoza, Spain

[2] Univ Zaragoza, Dept Fis Teor, E-50009 Zaragoza, Spain

[3] Univ Zaragoza, BIFI, E-50009 Zaragoza, Spain

来源：

JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY | 2006年 / 10卷 / 02期

关键词：

California; Parkfield; renewal models; San Andreas fault; seismic hazard assessment;

D O I：

10.1007/s10950-005-9005-8

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M-w = 6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized.

引用

页码：131 / 135

页数：5