Earnings volatility and earnings predictability

被引：277

作者：

Dichev, Ilia D. ^{[1
]}

Tang, Vicki Wei ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Michigan, Stephen M Ross Sch Business, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[2] Georgetown Univ, McDonough Sch Business, Washington, DC 20057 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS | 2009年 / 47卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

Earnings volatility; Earnings predictability; Analyst forecasts; Fundamental analysis; TIME-SERIES PROPERTIES; CASH FLOWS; INFORMATION; ACCRUALS; QUALITY; ABILITY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jacceco.2008.09.005

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

Survey evidence indicates widely held managerial beliefs that earnings volatility is negatively related to earnings predictability. In addition, existing research suggests that earnings volatility is determined by economic and accounting factors, and both of these factors reduce earnings predictability. We find that the consideration of earnings volatility brings substantial improvements in the prediction of both short- and long-term earnings. Conditioning on volatility information also allows one to identify systematic errors in analyst forecasts, which implies that analysts do not fully understand the implications of earnings volatility for earnings predictability. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：160 / 181

页数：22

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