Shelf life predictions for packaged olive oil using flavor compounds as markers

The experimentally-derived amounts of five selected flavor compounds, namely hexenal, 2-pentyl furan, (E)-2-heptenal, nonanal, and (E)-2-decenal, all produced during the oxidation of extra virgin olive oil packaged in various storage conditions (glass/PET/PVC bottles; 15/30/40 degreesC temperature; light or dark conditions) for one year, were used in a mathematical model for calculating the probability that the olive oil would not have reached the end of its shelf life (P-safe) after a certain storage period time. The storage times corresponding to probabilities of 70%, 50% and 30% were also calculated. On the basis of these results, an optimal group of flavor compounds were selected that were highly correlated to the degradation factors (storage conditions), and therefore the P-safe, of the oil. These flavor compounds could then be used as markers to identify the cause of the oxidative degradation (the "storage history") of the olive oil.