Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian oscillation

被引：304

作者：

Maloney, ED ^{[1
]}

Hartmann, DL ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2000年 / 287卷 / 5460期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.287.5460.2002

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale episodic modulation of tropical winds and precipitation that travels eastward from Asia to America, with a characteristic repeat time of 30 to 60 days. Here it is shown that when MJO wind anomalies in the lower troposphere of the eastern Pacific are westerly, Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean hurricane genesis is four times more likely than when the MJO winds are easterly. Accurate predictions of the MJO may lead to improved long-range forecasts of tropical cyclone activity.

引用

页码：2002 / 2004

页数：3

共 34 条

[21] Landsea C. W., 1994, Weather, V49, P273, DOI 10.1002/j.1477-8696.1994.tb06035.x
[22] Lester Paul, 1900, GREAT GALVESTON DISA
[23] MADDEN RA, 1994, MON WEATHER REV, V122, P814, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0814:OOTDTO>2.0.CO
[24] 2
[25] Maloney ED, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2387, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2387:FMCIAC>2.0.CO
[26] 2
[27] MALONEY ED, UNPUB
[28] Molinari J, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P2699, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2699:PVEWAE>2.0.CO
[29] 2
[30] Shaw D. B., 1979, Meteorology over the tropical oceans, P155, DOI DOI 10.1175/1520-0450

← 1 2 3 4 →