The dynamics of Wuchereria bancrofti infection:: a model-based analysis of longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India

被引:58
作者
Subramanian, S [1 ]
Stolk, WA
Ramaiah, KD
Plaisier, AP
Krishnamoorthy, K
Van Oortmarssen, GJ
Amalraj, DD
Habbema, JDF
Das, PK
机构
[1] Vector Control Res Ctr, Med Complex, Indian Council Med Res, Pondicherry 605006, India
[2] Erasmus Univ, Med Ctr, Dept Publ Hlth, Erasmus MC, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands
关键词
lymphatic filariasis; Wuchereria bancrofti; Culex quinquefasciatus; parasite dynamics; immune responses; simulation model; India;
D O I
10.1017/S0031182004004822
中图分类号
R38 [医学寄生虫学]; Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ; 100103 ;
摘要
This paper presents a model-based analysis of longitudinal data describing the impact of integrated vector management on the intensity of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in Pondicherry, India. The aims of this analysis were (1) to gain in sight into the dynamics of infection, with emphasis on the possible role of immunity, and (2) to develop a model that can be used to predict the effects of control. Using the LYMFASIM computer simulation program, two models with different types of immunity (anti-L3 larvae or anti-adult worm fecundity) were compared with a model without immunity. Parameters were estimated by fitting the models to data from 5071 individuals with microfilaria-density measurement before and after cessation of a 5-year vector management programme. A good fit, in particular Of the convex shape of the age-prevalence curve, required inclusion of anti-L3 or anti-fecundity immunity in the model. An individual's immune-responsiveness was found to halve in similar to10 years after cessation of boosting. Explanation of the large variation in Mf-density required considerable variation between individuals in exposure and immune responsiveness. The mean life-span of the parasite was estimated at about 10 years. For the post-control period, the models predict a further decline in Mf prevalence, which agrees well with observations made 3 and 6 years after cessation of the integrated vector management programme.
引用
收藏
页码:467 / 482
页数:16
相关论文
共 88 条
[71]  
*REG CTR IND CENS, 1981, CENS IND 1981 SER, V30
[72]  
ROCHET MJ, 1990, TROP MED PARASITOL, V41, P225
[73]   WUCHERERIA-BANCROFTI IN TANZANIA - IMMUNE-REACTIONS TO THE MICROFILARIAL SURFACE, AND THE EFFECT OF DIETHYLCARBAMAZINE UPON THESE REACTIONS [J].
SIMONSEN, PE .
TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 1985, 79 (06) :852-858
[74]   Wuchereria bancrofti in Tanzania: Microfilarial periodicity and effect of blood sampling time on microfilarial intensities [J].
Simonsen, PE ;
Niemann, L ;
Meyrowitsch, DW .
TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, 1997, 2 (02) :153-158
[75]   Bancroftian filariasis in Tanzania: Specific antibody responses in relation to long-term observations on microfilaremia [J].
Simonsen, PE ;
Meyrowitsch, DW .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 1998, 59 (05) :667-672
[76]  
SOUTHGATE BA, 1974, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V68, P177
[77]   THE DYNAMICS OF INFECTION AND DISEASE IN BANCROFTIAN FILARIASIS [J].
SRIVIDYA, A ;
PANI, SP ;
RAJAGOPALAN, PK ;
BUNDY, DAP ;
GRENFELL, BT .
TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, 1991, 85 (02) :255-259
[78]   Prospects for elimination of bancroftian filariasis by mass drug treatment in Pondicherry, India: A simulation study [J].
Stolk, WA ;
Swaminathan, S ;
van Oortmarssen, GJ ;
Das, PK ;
Habbema, JDF .
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2003, 188 (09) :1371-1381
[79]   BANCROFTIAN FILARIASIS IN PONDICHERRY, SOUTH-INDIA .2. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF VECTOR CONTROL [J].
SUBRAMANIAN, S ;
PANI, SP ;
DAS, PK ;
RAJAGOPALAN, PK .
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 1989, 103 (03) :693-702
[80]   The relationship between microfilarial load in the human host and uptake and development of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae by Culex quinquefasciatus:: a study under natural conditions [J].
Subramanian, S ;
Krishnamoorthy, K ;
Ramaiah, KD ;
Habbema, JDF ;
Das, PK ;
Plaisier, AP .
PARASITOLOGY, 1998, 116 :243-255