CouldWind and PV Energies Achieve the Grid Parity in China until 2020

被引：9

作者：

Li, Hong ^{[1
,2
]}

Yu, Yang ^{[2
]}

Xie, Yuantao ^{[3
]}

Zhang, Jing ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Peking Univ, Sch Econ, 5 Yi HeYuan AV, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China

[2] Ctr Natl Resource Econ Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China

[3] UIBE, Sch Insurance & Econ, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China

来源：

FILOMAT | 2016年 / 30卷 / 15期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Bottom-up cost evaluation; Environmental cost of coal-fired power; LCOE; Levelized price; Wind and PV power;

D O I：

10.2298/FIL1615173L

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

Grid parity targets of wind and solar power are proposed in China Energy Development Strategy Action Plan 2014-2020. The paper intends to exam this proposal and pinpoints factors that may influence the achievements of these targets. The method of levelized cost of electricity is adopted tocompare the price trends of wind, PV and coal poweron the utility's transmission and distribution grids. The environmental cost of coal- fired power is estimated and accounted into the price comparison. Results show that the levelized prices of wind and PV power will decrease considerably during the period of Action Plan. Neither wind nor PV power is competitive with coal power from the utility or retail side in 2013. But wind power is approaching the utility cost in 2020 and achievesthe grid parity in provinces with the favorable wind resources and unfavorable coal electricity costs. Distributed PV stations can reach the grid parity on the retail level for business or even industrial consumerswhen utility- scale solar plantsstill do not. The extent that the environmental cost is accounted extensively influences the time for wind and solar power at grid parity. These findings implicatethatthe electricity price policies for wind and solar power should be positioned to betterpromote their cost reductions and better reflect theirenvironmental values.

引用

页码：4173 / 4189

页数：17

共 40 条

[21]

MEP and GAPSIA, 2011, 132232011 GB MEP CAP

[22]

NDRC, 2002, NOT NAT PLANN COMM R

[23]

NDRC, 1986, NOT NAT PLANN COMM C

[24] Cost development of future technologies for power generation - A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments [J].

Neij, Lena .

ENERGY POLICY, 2008, 36 (06) :2200-2211

[25]

NREL, 2012, PHOT PV PRIC TRENDS

[26] The price of wind power in China during its expansion: Technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization [J].

Qiu, Yueming ;

Anadon, Laura D. .

ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2012, 34 (03) :772-785

[27]

Shang Qi, 2010, COST COAL 2010 AIR P

[28]

Statista, 2014, AUSTR COAL PRIC 1980

[29]

Sui Lihui, 2012, Water Resources and Power, V30, P209

[30]

TengFei, 2014, 2012 TRUE COST COAL

← 1 2 3 4 →