Epidemic dynamics and antigenic evolution in a single season of influenza A

被引:73
作者
Boni, Maciej F.
Gog, Julia R.
Andreasen, Viggo
Feldman, Marcus W.
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[2] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
[3] Univ Roskilde, Dept Math & Phys, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
关键词
influenza; antigenic drift; population dynamics; population genetics; herd immunity; immune escape;
D O I
10.1098/rspb.2006.3466
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We use a mathematical model to study the evolution of influenza A during the epidemic dynamics of a single season. Classifying strains by their distance from the epidemic-originating strain, we show that neutral mutation yields a constant rate of antigenic evolution, even in the presence of epidemic dynamics. We introduce host immunity and viral immune escape to construct a non-neutral model. Our population dynamics can then be framed naturally in the context of population genetics, and we show that departure from neutrality is governed by the covariance between a strain's fitness and its distance from the original epidemic strain. We quantify the amount of antigenic evolution that takes place in excess of what is expected under neutrality and find that this excess amount is largest under strong host immunity and long epidemics.
引用
收藏
页码:1307 / 1316
页数:10
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