Combination and evaluation of expert opinions characterized in terms of fuzzy probabilities

被引：33

作者：

Yu, DH ^{[1
]}

Park, WS ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Korea Atom Energy Res Inst, Taejon 305600, South Korea

来源：

ANNALS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY | 2000年 / 27卷 / 08期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S0306-4549(00)82012-5

中图分类号：

TL [原子能技术]; O571 [原子核物理学];

学科分类号：

0827 ; 082701 ;

摘要：

This study presents a new approach for combining expert opinions to assess an uncertainty inherent in accident management. The need to work with rare events and limited data in accident management leads analysts to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approach using point-valued probabilities, this study proposes the use of fuzzy probabilities to represent expert opinions. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is based on limited data and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining and propagating fuzzy probabilities. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the probability of a bottom head failure for the flooded case in the Peach Bottom BWR nuclear power plant. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：713 / 726

页数：14

共 9 条

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