Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

被引:340
作者
Eames, KTD
Keeling, MJ
机构
[1] Univ Warwick, Dept Biol Sci, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
[2] Univ Warwick, Math Inst, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
[3] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
关键词
spatial correlations; pair-wise models; mixing matrix; core groups; contact tracing;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.202244299
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
A wide range of communicable human diseases can be considered as spreading through a network of possible transmission routes. The implied network structure is vital in determining disease dynamics, especially when the average number of connections per individual is small as is the case for many sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here we develop an intuitive mathematical framework to deal with the heterogeneities implicit within contact networks and those that arise because of the infection process. These models are compared with full stochastic simulations and show excellent agreement across a wide range of parameters. We show how such models can be used to estimate parameters of epidemiological importance, and how they can be extended to examine the effectiveness of various control strategies, in particular screening programs and contact tracing.
引用
收藏
页码:13330 / 13335
页数:6
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