Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models

被引：57

作者：

Chan, S. C. ^{[1
]}

Kendon, E. J. ^{[2
]}

Fowler, H. J. ^{[1
]}

Blenkinsop, S. ^{[1
]}

Roberts, N. M. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Newcastle Univ, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England

[2] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[3] Met Off Reading, Reading, Berks, England

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2014年 / 9卷 / 08期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

regional climate models; climate change projections; hydrological cycle; extreme events;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084019

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Summer (June-July-August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform (approximate to 10%) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (<= 5 years) events but strong increases in long return period (>= 20 years) events. We have low physical and statistical confidence in the 12 km RCM projections for longer return periods. Both models show evidence for longer dry periods between events. In winter (December-January-February; DJF), the models show larger return level increases (>= 40%). Both DJF projections are consistent with results from previous work based on coarser resolution models.

引用

页数：8

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