Generation Expansion Planning Considering Mass Penetration of Renewable Energy Generation and Supply Reliability

In the future, renewable energy (RE) generation systems will be constructed and interconnected to the power system by nonutility entities such as generation companies and residential customers. Therefore, generation expansion planning (GEP) should consider the effects of RE generation. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the best GEP from the economic, supply reliability, and environmental aspects considering the penetration of RE generation. For this purpose, this paper proposes a model of a utility's GEP process considering RE generation. The proposed method is based on stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) in which long-term uncertainties are modeled by geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and the binomial lattice process. The variation of RE generation output due to the weather conditions (short-term uncertainty) is also considered in the proposed method by means of the net load curve.