Optimal investments in power generation under centralized and decentralized decision making

被引：117

作者：

Botterud, A ^{[1
]}

Ilic, MD

Wangensteen, I

机构：

[1] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Elect Power Engn, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[2] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Elect Comp Engn, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

[3] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 2005年 / 20卷 / 01期

关键词：

centralized and decentralized decision making; generation expansion planning; real options; restructured power systems; stochastic dynamic optimization;

D O I：

10.1109/TPWRS.2004.841217

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

This paper presents a novel modal for optimization of investments in new power generation under uncertainty. The model can calculate optimal investment strategies under both centralized social welfare and decentralized profit objectives. The power market is represented with linear supply and demand curves. A stochastic dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve the investment problem, where uncertainty in demand is represented as a discrete Markov chain. The stochastic dynamic model allows us to evaluate investment projects in new base and peak load power generation as real options, and determine optimal timing of the investments. In a case study, we use the model to compare optimal investment strategies under centralized and decentralized decision making. A number of interesting results follow by varying the assumptions about market structure and price response on the demand side.

引用

页码：254 / 263

页数：10

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