A brief history of R0 and a recipe for its calculation

被引:305
作者
Heesterbeek, JAP [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Utrecht, Fac Vet Med, Quantitat Vet Epidemiol Grp, Yalelaan 7, NL-3584 CL Utrecht, Netherlands
关键词
D O I
10.1023/A:1016599411804
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
In this paper I present the genesis of R-0 in demography, ecology and epidemiology, from embryo to its current adult form. I argue on why it has taken so long for the concept to mature in epidemiology when there were ample opportunities for cross-fertilisation from demography and ecology from where it reached adulthood fifty years earlier. Today, R-0 is a more fully developed adult in epidemiology than in demography. In the final section I give an algorithm for its calculation in heterogeneous populations.
引用
收藏
页码:189 / 204
页数:16
相关论文
共 56 条
[1]  
AITCHISON J, 1988, INFLUENCE SCOTTISH M, P113
[2]  
ANDERSON R M, 1991
[3]  
Anderson R. M., 1981, Theoretical ecology. Principles and application., P318
[4]  
Anderson R. M, 1982, Population Biology of Infectious Diseases
[5]   POPULATION BIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASES .1. [J].
ANDERSON, RM ;
MAY, RM .
NATURE, 1979, 280 (5721) :361-367
[6]   DIRECTLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIOUS-DISEASES - CONTROL BY VACCINATION [J].
ANDERSON, RM ;
MAY, RM .
SCIENCE, 1982, 215 (4536) :1053-1060
[7]  
[Anonymous], 1955, An introduction to stochastic processes, with special reference to methods and applications
[8]  
[Anonymous], FERTILITY REPROD
[9]  
[Anonymous], 1977, MATH DEMOGRAPHY SELE
[10]  
[Anonymous], 1997, R ROSS MALARIOLOGIST