A model for undertaking effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses of primary preventive strategies in cardiovascular disease

Background Clinical trials generally provide strong evidence of the efficacy of cardiovascular preventive strategies, but poor evidence of their 'real-life' utility, in terms of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Design and methods The Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Model is presented, which represents a means of extrapolating the results of clinical trials to a broader, more relevant context. The model is configured as a decision-analysis tree, and underpinned by life-course analysis and Markov processes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are undertaken by Monte Carlo simulation. Results The results of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses of a hypothetical preventive intervention are presented to demonstrate the outputs of the model. The potential impact and efficiency of the intervention are made obvious. Conclusions The Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Model offers a means to translate the results of trials of cardiovascular preventive interventions, in order to inform clinical and public health practice, as well as health policy.