Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications

被引：65

作者：

McGrath, Daniel ^{[1
]}

Colgan, William ^{[1
,2
]}

Bayou, Nicolas ^{[1
]}

Muto, Atsuhiro ^{[3
,4
]}

Steffen, Konrad ^{[5
,6
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[2] Geol Survey Denmark & Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark

[3] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[4] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[5] Swiss Fed Inst Forest, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[6] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland

[7] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2013年 / 40卷 / 10期

关键词：

Greenland Ice Sheet; surface melting; equilibrium line altitude; percolation zone; ICE-SHEET; IN-SITU; SEA-ICE; SURFACE; ACCELERATION; ACCUMULATION; ALBEDO;

D O I：

10.1002/grl.50456

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Observations at Summit, Greenland suggest that the annual mean near-surface air temperature increased at 0.090.01 degrees C/a over the 1982-2011 climatology period. This rate of warming, six times the global average, places Summit in the 99th percentile of all globally observed warming trends over this period. The rate of warming at Summit is increasing over time. During the instrumental period (1987-2011), warming has been greatest in the winter season, although the implications of summer warming are more acute. The annual maximum elevation of the equilibrium line and dry snow line has risen at 44 and 35m/a over the past 15 and 18years, respectively. Extrapolation of this observed trend now suggests, with 95% confidence intervals, that the dry snow facies of the Greenland Ice Sheet will inevitably transition to percolation facies. There is a 50% probability of this transition occurring by 2025.

引用

页码：2091 / 2096

页数：6

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