Early-warning signals for critical transitions

被引:2990
作者
Scheffer, Marten [1 ]
Bascompte, Jordi [2 ]
Brock, William A. [3 ]
Brovkin, Victor [5 ]
Carpenter, Stephen R. [4 ]
Dakos, Vasilis [1 ]
Held, Hermann [6 ]
van Nes, Egbert H. [1 ]
Rietkerk, Max [7 ]
Sugihara, George [8 ]
机构
[1] Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
[2] CSIC, Integrat Ecol Grp, Estac Biol Donana, E-41092 Seville, Spain
[3] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Madison, WI 53706 USA
[4] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA
[5] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
[6] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
[7] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Environm Sci, Copernicus Inst, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands
[8] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
CATASTROPHIC REGIME SHIFTS; SELF-ORGANIZED PATCHINESS; CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; EPILEPTIC SEIZURES; TIME-SERIES; CLIMATE; PREDICTION; THRESHOLDS; VOLATILITY;
D O I
10.1038/nature08227
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
引用
收藏
页码:53 / 59
页数:7
相关论文
共 77 条
[61]  
Scheffer M., 2009, CRITICAL TRANSITIONS
[62]   Shallow lakes theory revisited: various alternative regimes driven by climate, nutrients, depth and lake size [J].
Scheffer, Marten ;
van Nes, Egbert H. .
HYDROBIOLOGIA, 2007, 584 (1) :455-466
[63]  
Schroeder M. R., 1991, FRACTALS CHAOS POWER
[64]  
Sole R. V., 1995, Complexity, V1, P13
[65]  
Strogatz S. H., 1994, NONLINEAR DYNAMICS C, P248
[66]   Critical slowing down at a bifurcation [J].
Tredicce, JR ;
Lippi, GL ;
Mandel, P ;
Charasse, B ;
Chevalier, A ;
Picqué, B .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICS, 2004, 72 (06) :799-809
[67]   Eocene bipolar glaciation associated with global carbon cycle changes [J].
Tripati, A ;
Backman, J ;
Elderfield, H ;
Ferretti, P .
NATURE, 2005, 436 (7049) :341-346
[69]   Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift [J].
van Nes, Egbert H. ;
Scheffer, Marten .
AMERICAN NATURALIST, 2007, 169 (06) :738-747
[70]   Implications of spatial heterogeneity for catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems [J].
van Nes, EH ;
Scheffer, M .
ECOLOGY, 2005, 86 (07) :1797-1807