Addressing data deficiency in classifying extinction risk: a case study of a radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Of the roughly 12, 000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.