Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession

被引:116
作者
Yagan, Danny [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
关键词
DISABILITY INSURANCE; UNEMPLOYMENT; WAGES; HETEROGENEITY; ADJUSTMENT; DECLINE; COSTS; RISE;
D O I
10.1086/701809
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper uses US local areas as a laboratory to test for long-term impacts of the Great Recession. In administrative longitudinal data, I estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage point larger 2007-9 local unemployment shock reduced 2015 working-age employment rates by over 0.3 percentage points. Rescaled, this long-term recession impact accounts for over half of the 2007-15 US age-adjusted employment decline. Impacts were larger among older and lower-earning individuals and typically involved a layoff but are present even in a mass-layoffs sample. Disability insurance and out-migration yielded little income replacement. These findings reveal that the Great Recession imposed employment and income losses even after unemployment rates signaled recovery.
引用
收藏
页码:2505 / 2558
页数:54
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