Grid parity analysis of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany using experience curves

被引：109

作者：

Bhandari, Ramchandra ^{[1
]}

Stadler, Ingo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Cologne Univ Appl Sci, Inst Elect Engn, D-50679 Cologne, Germany

来源：

SOLAR ENERGY | 2009年 / 83卷 / 09期

关键词：

Solar photovoltaic; Benefit cost analysis; Breakeven analysis; Grid parity;

D O I：

10.1016/j.solener.2009.06.001

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

The paper starts with experience Curve analysis in order to find Out the future prices of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules. Experience curves for 75-90% progress ratio are extrapolated with the help of estimated future growth rate for PV installation worldwide and cut-rent module price data until year 2060. A kWh PV electricity generation cost has been calculated for coming decades with the help of local market parameters and module prices data from extrapolated experience curve. Two different prices for grid electricity - wholesale electricity price and end user electricity price - are separately analyzed. Household electricity consumption profile and PV electricity generation profile for Cologne, Germany, have been analyzed to find out the possibility for PV electricity consumption at the time of its generation. This result is used to calculate the real grid parity year - which lies somewhere between grid parity years calculated for wholesale electricity price and end user electricity price. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1634 / 1644

页数：11