Getting round the lock-in in electricity generating systems: The example of the gas turbine

The purpose of this paper is to show how, in a situation of ''lock-in'' in the environment of electricity generation, a new technology can succeed in overcoming this situation and become competitive. Our study will show that it is possible to get round the lock-in by bringing into play the increasing returns of adoption in particular production niches, where the existence of powerful constraints of techno-economic consistency leads to a path of increasing specification. Then a hybridization of the competing technologies will allow the new technology to emerge from the original niche and take advantage of the increasing returns of adoption which were hitherto the reserve of the former technology. We shall then draw lessons from the example of the gas turbine in comparison with the basic model of B. Arthur. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.