A model for China's energy requirements and CO2 emissions analysis

This paper introduces a model and corresponding software for modeling China's Energy Requirements and the CO2 Emissions Analysis System (CErCmA). Based on the input-output approach, CErCmA was designed for scenario analysis of energy requirements and CO2 emissions to support policymakers, planners and others strategically plan for energy demands and environmental protection in China. In the system, major drivers of energy consumption are identified as technology, population, economy and urbanization; scenarios are based on the major driving forces that represent various growth paths. The input-output approach is employed to compute energy requirements and CO2 emissions under each scenario. The development of CErCmA is described in a case study: China's energy requirements and CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2020 are computed based on the input-output table of 1997. The results show that China's energy needs and related CO2 emissions will grow exponentially even with many energy efficiency improvements, and that it will be hard for China to maintain its advantage of low per capita emissions in the next 20 years. China's manufacturing and transportation sectors should be the two major sectors to implement energy efficiency improvements. Options for improving this model are also presented in this paper. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.