A simple and accurate prediction model to estimate the intrahospital mortality risk of hospitalised cancer patients

We aimed to form a risk prediction model to assess the probability of intrahospital death in cancer patients at the time of hospitalisation. The medical records and the relevant clinical parameters of cancer patients who died in or who were discharged from a teaching hospital between 1997 and 2000 (n = 334) were reviewed to explore the determinants of intrahospital death, which later were verified prospectively (n = 131). Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of four, short duration of disease (on a logarithmic scale), emergency admission, low haemoglobin (Hb) value (on a linear scale) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) value greater than 378 mu/ml were significantly and independently associated with the risk of intrahospital death. This model had a receiver operating characteristic area of 0.88 in the derivation cohort and 0.82 in the validation cohort. Using readily available clinical parameters, it is possible to devise an accurate and applicable risk prediction model for the hospitalised cancer patients.