The penetration of CDs in the sound recording market: issues in specification, model selection and forecasting

Annual data on the market penetration of music CDs in 12 countries are used to consider two issues in a forecasting comparison of 12 model specifications and three sample sizes. Firstly, particular attention is paid to the impact of stochastic specification of the models on the estimation of the saturation levels and forecasts. Secondly, the issue of model complexity and sample size is addressed by including two four-parameter models with various specialisations, other three-parameter models, and three different sample sizes. There is reasonably strong support for one particular model which is a member of Bewley and Fiebig's (Int. J. Forecasting 4 (1988) 177) flexible logistic class. (C) 2001 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.