Pre-election polls and the dynamics of the 1997 Canadian federal election

We report a meta-analysis of all polls published in the five-month period preceding the June 2, 1997 Canadian federal election. The perception that the Liberals were hurt by the early election call receives support from the polling data. Similarly, media claims that the Reform party ran a strong campaign are supported by a gradual increase in the party's standing during the pre-campaign and campaign periods. Our findings, however, contradict the view that the Conservatives' fortunes in the election were enhanced by Jean Charest's strong performance in the debates. As commonly reported in the media, the fortunes of the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec declined gradually during the pre-campaign period and more precipitously after the election call. Contrary to media interpretations, we found that Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe's performance in the debates was not detrimental to his party's support, which levelled off after the French-language debate. Finally, we compare the polls with daily data from the 1997 Canadian National Election Study. We find that the two sources of data are in general agreement and argue that they are complementary. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.